Ugly Betty And The Renew/Cancel Index
October 14, 2008 by Tom
If you are an Ugly Betty fan and a numbers geek like me (there are, what, four of us?), you will find the Renew/Cancel index at TV by The Numbers quite fascinating.
Basically, they crunch ratings numbers to develop an index showing how likely a show is to be cancelled. Apparently, it’s pretty accurate, as you can see from last year’s chart.
I first got wind of the index last week, when Ugly Betty fell under the “Cancellation Possible” category, along with Cold Case and Without a Trace. Now, don’t panic, the “possible” category is kind of in the middle; it falls between “Cancellation Unlikey” (Desperate Housewives) and “Cancellation Likely” (Pushing Daisies, believe it or not).
This week, the news is better: It is still early in the season and shows continue to shift up and down the list. In our original list, for example, My Name is Earl looked in danger, but now it’s edged into the safe zone. Other shows like Prison Break and Ugly Betty are improving their standing as well. How far from safety is too far to sustain the hope of fans? It’s too early to know for sure, but fans of the shows near the top of the list shouldn’t be making any long term viewing plans.
In case you didn’t know, Ugly Betty performs VERY WELL in the main indicator of the index (18-49 year olds), at least compared to it’s overall viewership (this year, overall UB has averaged between 8-10 million overall viewers – respectable, but nowhere near the season 1 numbers). The show seems to have held it’s viewership since last season’s finale, but it hasn’t regained the season 1 glory.
Anyway, as you might guess, Ugly Betty’s ratings are of keen interest to me 
.
For stat geeks like me, the full list is after the jump. Also: the list is updated weekly. Be sure to check back!
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| EASY MONEY* | CW | 463 | 1,460 | 0.32 | production halted |
| VALENTINE* | CW | 507 | 1,460 | 0.35 | production halted |
| LIFE** | NBC | 2,037 | 3,880 | 0.53 | |
| DO NOT DISTURB | FOX | 2,097 | 3,630 | 0.58 | cancelled |
| THE EX LIST** | CBS | 2,560 | 4,150 | 0.62 | |
| PUSHING DAISIES | ABC | 2,653 | 4,190 | 0.63 | |
| TIL DEATH | FOX | 2,367 | 3,630 | 0.65 | |
| EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS** | CW | 959 | 1,460 | 0.66 | |
| NEW ADVS OF OLD CHRISTINE | CBS | 2,749 | 4,150 | 0.66 | |
| NUMB3RS** | CBS | 2,811 | 4,150 | 0.68 | |
| BOSTON LEGAL | ABC | 2,903 | 4,190 | 0.69 | final season |
| DIRTY SEXY MONEY | ABC | 2,909 | 4,190 | 0.69 | |
| LIPSTICK JUNGLE | NBC | 2,757 | 3,880 | 0.71 | |
| THE GAME** | CW | 1,073 | 1,460 | 0.73 | |
| GARY UNMARRIED | CBS | 3,060 | 4,150 | 0.74 | |
| TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES | FOX | 2,925 | 3,630 | 0.81 | |
| KNIGHT RIDER | NBC | 3,165 | 3,880 | 0.82 | |
| GHOST WHISPERER** | CBS | 3,438 | 4,150 | 0.83 | |
| THE UNIT | CBS | 3,483 | 4150 | 0.84 | |
| CHUCK | NBC | 3,293 | 3,880 | 0.85 | |
| COLD CASE | CBS | 3,618 | 4,150 | 0.87 | |
| WITHOUT A TRACE | CBS | 3,641 | 4,150 | 0.88 | |
| PRISON BREAK | FOX | 3,186 | 3,630 | 0.88 | |
| UGLY BETTY | ABC | 3,736 | 4,190 | 0.89 | |
| RENEWAL LIKELY BELOW THIS LINE | |||||
| PRIVATE PRACTICE | ABC | 3,861 | 4,190 | 0.92 | |
| PRIVILEGED | CW | 1,352 | 1,460 | 0.93 | |
| MY NAME IS EARL | NBC | 3,612 | 3,880 | 0.93 | |
| WORST WEEK | CBS | 4,272 | 4150 | 1.03 | |
| ELEVENTH HOUR | CBS | 4,281 | 4,150 | 1.03 | |
| KATH & KIM | NBC | 4,274 | 3,880 | 1.10 | |
| BIG BANG THEORY, THE | CBS | 4,647 | 4,150 | 1.12 | |
| THE MENTALIST | CBS | 4,721 | 4,150 | 1.14 | |
| NCIS | CBS | 4,727 | 4,150 | 1.14 | |
| LIFE ON MARS | ABC | 4,828 | 4,190 | 1.15 | |
| BONES | FOX | 4,228 | 3,630 | 1.16 | |
| KING OF THE HILL | FOX | 4,384 | 3,630 | 1.21 | |
| AMERICAN DAD | FOX | 4,424 | 3,630 | 1.22 | |
| E.R. | NBC | 4,763 | 3,880 | 1.23 | final season |
| HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER | CBS | 5,186 | 4,150 | 1.25 | |
| BROTHERS & SISTERS | ABC | 5,254 | 4,190 | 1.25 | |
| LAW AND ORDER:SVU | NBC | 4,983 | 3,880 | 1.28 | |
| SUPERNATURAL | CW | 1,909 | 1,460 | 1.31 | |
| CSI: NY | CBS | 5,439 | 4,150 | 1.31 | |
| CRIMINAL MINDS | CBS | 5,688 | 4,150 | 1.37 | |
| SURVIVOR: GABON | CBS | 5,891 | 4,150 | 1.42 | |
| GOSSIP GIRL | CW | 2,106 | 1,460 | 1.44 | |
| CSI: MIAMI | CBS | 6,007 | 4,150 | 1.45 | |
| FRINGE | FOX | 5,328 | 3,630 | 1.47 | |
| SIMPSONS | FOX | 5,355 | 3,630 | 1.48 | |
| SMALLVILLE | CW | 2,217 | 1,460 | 1.52 | |
| ONE TREE HILL | CW | 2,239 | 1,460 | 1.53 | |
| HEROES | NBC | 6,139 | 3,880 | 1.58 | |
| FAMILY GUY | FOX | 5,769 | 3,630 | 1.59 | |
| TWO AND A HALF MEN | CBS | 6,646 | 4,150 | 1.60 | |
| OFFICE | NBC | 6,417 | 3,880 | 1.65 | |
| HOUSE | FOX | 6,181 | 3,630 | 1.70 | |
| 90210 | CW | 2,554 | 1,460 | 1.75 | |
| DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES | ABC | 8,304 | 4,190 | 1.98 | |
| GREY’S ANATOMY | ABC | 9,005 | 4,190 | 2.15 | |
| CSI | CBS | 9,421 | 4,150 | 2.27 | |
Image: Copyright © 2008 American Broadcasting Companies, Inc./ BOB D’AMICO
Glad UB is doing pretty well!
But seriously… PUSHING DAISIES?! Possibly the 2nd best show on televeision right now? HOW?!
Please, Please, PLEASE – anyone who reads this, I encourage you to watch PD (and UB, of course!). Let’s get the ratings up for BOTH shows!
I’m surprised Kath & Kim and the Big Bang Theory are NOT in jeopardy. K&K previews look dumb and I don’t find BBT that funny. After the first episode of Ugly Betty being a total disaster for so many people including myself, I am not surprised to see it in the “cancellation possible” category. I still love the show but it has lost some of it’s mojo. I’m predicting UB will last another 2 seasons.
Despite UB being in that “possible cancellation” area, I’m not worried at all. If we were talking about a show without “clout”, like Lipstick Jungle or something similar, I would be worried. But UB has a lot more going for it, and I get the feeling that ABC knows this as well. I seriously doubt that they’re in any rush to kill “Ugly Betty” anytime soon.
And if the show does go off the air after 2 or 3 more seasons, I think that would make sense, considering the average life of most TV shows. Also, I think that would be ample enough time to tell Betty’s story at Mode before she moves up and out into the big leagues.
As for Season 3’s direction? I love it. Not everyone may have been raving over the season premiere, but frankly, compared to the last few episodes of Season 2 (which were much more disappointing, IMO), this new season is a major improvement.
Please dont cancelled Ugly Betty.I want our show stay until finish,please.America Ferrera is very excelled on Ugly Betty
I’ve heard from a Hollywood producer type that the show has already been unofficially cancelled. Here’s to hoping they’re wrong.
I don’t know if this will do anything but I think it is worth a try. There is a petition started for keeping Ugly Betty on the air if you are interested:
http://www.petitionspot.com/petitions/dontshelveuglybetty